A single-perimeter holding-company SOTP. Arm is marked live. OpenAI is pulled out of SVF2 so it is not counted twice. Debt is SoftBank's own adjusted SBG net debt, not consolidated net debt. ADR math is 1 Tokyo ordinary = 2 SFTBY ADRs. Research model, not SoftBank IR, not a recommendation.
How this works in 30 seconds
Arm = 922.7M shares × live ARM, minus Arm-backed loans once (IR already excludes those loans from adjusted ND).
OpenAI replaces the Jun 30 carrying value inside SVF2. Current case uses a cost-ratio estimate of ownership because SoftBank has only disclosed ~13% upon completion of the $30B follow-on. Funded-13% adds the last $10B as asset and as debt.
Stub is SVF1 + SVF2 ex-OpenAI + LatAm + SoftBank Corp. (already net of SBKK asset-backed finance) + other IR lines, frozen in USD at IR FX 162.39.
NAV = those assets − SBG-adjusted ND (plus post-June OpenAI draws) − an illustrative tax slider. Holdco discount vs the SFTBY price is an output, never an input.
Stale composition. Holdings mix, SBKK, SVF marks, and adjusted ND are as of 30 Jun 2026. Live ARM $238.00 is -33% vs the IR-implied Arm price of $355 at 30 Jun 2026. OpenAI, SVF, and ND have not been re-cut by SoftBank for that move.
General information only — not investment advice, not an offer, not a SoftBank product. Official NAV is pre-tax and not a realizable cash value. SFTBY is an unsponsored OTC ADR (wider spreads, 2-for-1). Private marks (OpenAI, SVF) are estimates. Author may hold related securities.
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9984 ¥5,255 · USDJPY 159.00 · 1 Tokyo = 2 ADR
Re-marks yen debt and Arm loans. Stub stays at IR FX 162.39.
SoftBank has not disclosed a current %. 13% is the press figure upon completing the $30B follow-on. Preferred, not common-equivalent.
Applied only to modeled unrealized gains (Arm vs $40B basis, OpenAI vs funded cost). Not a tax on gross assets.
Preset scenarios
Holdco NAV / ADR
$25.82
Tokyo NAV $51.63 · SFTBY $16.53
Discount to NAV
36.0%
Mkt cap $188B vs NAV $294B
IR-style LTV
19.9%
SBG adj. ND $78.0B / holdings $393B
Gross look-through / $1 cap
117¢ Arm
49¢ OpenAI gross — not unencumbered ownership
Residual implied OpenAI
−$293B
Equity value if market cap were holdco NAV — a residual, not a mark
01
Holdco waterfall
$ billions
Arm gross (live)
+$220B
Arm-backed loans (once)
−$20.3B
OpenAI (net of haircut)
+$78.5B
Stub (SVF2 ex-OpenAI + other IR lines)
+$115B
SBG adjusted ND + post-June draws
−$78.0B
Illustrative tax leakage
−$20.3B
Holdco NAV
$294B
Arm gross $220B at $238.00 × 922.73M shares. OpenAI 11.0% of $840B, then 15% private haircut. Residual OpenAI equity if market cap were NAV: −$293B (a residual, not a valuation).
02
Gross look-through vs the cap
Claim
$B
per $1 of cap
Arm gross (no loan net)
$220B
$1.17
OpenAI gross (no haircut)
$92.3B
$0.49
Arm + OpenAI gross
$312B
$1.66
Gross two-asset exposure minus market cap
$123B
bridge, not cash
Figures above $1.00 per $1 of market cap do not mean the stub, debt, tax, and private-asset haircut are free. They mean gross asset exposure exceeds the equity cap — which is exactly what leverage does.
03
NAV / ADR sensitivity
vs SFTBY $16.53
ARM \ OAI $B
400
500
640
730
840
1000
1200
$150
$16
$17
$18
$19
$19
$21
$22
$180
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$210
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
$238
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
$27
$28
$270
$25
$26
$27
$27
$28
$29
$31
$300
$27
$28
$29
$30
$30
$32
$33
$350
$31
$31
$33
$33
$34
$35
$37
04
Debt reconciliation (not a second NAV)
Consolidated net debt is not comparable to this equity SOTP. Pairing it with listed-equity marks double-counts SoftBank Corp. operating debt, SVF fund leverage, and can double-count Arm-backed loans. It belongs here as a bridge, not as a co-equal cheap / not-cheap mode.
$40B bridge is a commitment (matures 25 Mar 2027). Only the drawn amount is in ND; this model adds the post-June OpenAI checks explicitly rather than assuming the full $40B. IR LTV policy bands (25% / 35%) use this adjusted ND, not Fiscal.ai $147B. Hybrids may be 50% equity in IR LTV — shown in “other adjustments,” not haircut 50% again here. Arm-backed loans ¥3.22T are subtracted from Arm above and are not in SBG adjusted ND.
Equity cap vs EV is a different question. Fiscal.ai EV $357B uses consolidated ND $147B and cash $24.1B. Arm+OpenAI gross $312B vs that EV is not the holdco SOTP. Do not mix the two.
05
Methodology
Official NAV 30 Jun 2026: ¥72.30T vs Fiscal.ai cap ¥29.95T ≈ 58.6% listed discount. 5 Aug IR pro forma ¥58.3T re-marks the June book; it is not a live balance sheet.
Arm ownership is the share count 922,733,999 (~86.7%), not the 2023 IPO “~90%” blurb.
OpenAI lives in SVF2 (¥19.29T at 30 Jun 2026). Jun 30 carrying value used to strip the stub: $89.6B. Adding OpenAI on top of full SVF2 would double-count ~$90–110B.
Current ownership = 13% × ($54.6B / $64.6B) = 11.0%. That is a cost-ratio estimate, not a filing.
Holdco discount is output = 1 − market cap / model NAV. It is never fed back into NAV.
• Morningstar equity / investment-detail PDFs (Aug 2026) for the accounting-quality warning — not used as the SOTP.
Informational and educational only. Not investment advice, not an offer to buy or sell securities, not affiliated with or endorsed by SoftBank Group. NAV is not realizable or distributable. Private-company values are estimates. Figures can be wrong. The author may hold SFTBY, 9984, ARM, or related securities. Do your own work.