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BOLEWOOD GROUP · LOOK-THROUGH

Pre-IPO Anthropic and OpenAI per $100

Estimated Anthropic and OpenAI exposure per $100 of wrapper value. Market value for listed securities; total net assets for unlisted funds. Live prices; curated denominator inputs. Not per share.

As of October 2, 2026, the author holds long positions in DXYZ, SKM, ZM, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, NSLR and PWRL. The DXYZ exposure includes options. Positions are subject to change without notice. (6d ago)

PRICES…SEE AS-OF · EXPAND A ROW

Last primary: Anthropic Series H $965B (2026-05-28) / OpenAI $852B (2026-03-31), verified 2026-09-05. Tick marks the round. Sliders are log-scaled $0.5T–$5.0T.

Links share assumptions; exported JSON also freezes prices and the ATM bridge for offline reproduction.

T
1.0x last round
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1.0x last round

Defaults are 1.0× last primary round (Anthropic Series H $0.965T, OpenAI $0.852T). Assumes pro rata dilution of existing holders. Does not model participation rights, anti-dilution provisions, ownership caps, or security-specific conversion terms. Default 0% is gross look-through. Both valuations revalue every quantified holding in both holdings modes, including DXYZ and SKM. Unknown stakes and commitments remain unquantified.

Company share counts & acquisition assumptions

These are pre-IPO fully diluted (FD) share-equivalent estimates, not published cap tables. Low/high presets are sensitivity choices, not probabilities. IPO dilution is additional to these share counts.

Base is the recommended starting assumption.

Default: $965B / (DXYZ June FV / units). Different valuation methods and security classes make this a calibration proxy, not independently verified FD. Low/high: conditional SKM rounded 0.2% cross-check; rounding convention and FD definition unverified.

assumption: 2026-06-30 · Filing supplies units and FV only, not FD.
primary: 2026-05-28 · $965B primary anchor.
assumption: 2026-06-30 · 3,860,330 divided by conditional 0.25%, 0.15%, 0.2% cross-check.
assumption: 2026-09-05 · Slider limits allow sensitivity exploration.
Base is the recommended starting assumption.

Default: $852B / (DXYZ June preferred FV / units). No independent public FD cap table. Low/high are explicitly ±25% stress choices, not foundation or option-pool estimates.

assumption: 2026-06-30 · Preferred-unit calibration proxy, not an issuer FD disclosure.
primary: 2026-03-31 · $852B primary anchor.
assumption: 2026-09-05 · Author-selected sensitivity and UI limits.
Base is the recommended starting assumption.

June preferred FV / units is an adjustable proxy for August common entry. ±25% stress choices are not transaction quotes. Estimated units = $150M / entry price; hold fixed as company valuation or FD changes.

assumption: 2026-06-30 · June preferred mark proxy for a different security and date; actual August units not disclosed.
assumption: 2026-09-05 · Slider limits allow sensitivity exploration.

Implied scenario prices: Anthropic $610.41 / share; OpenAI $688.49 / share. The August lot is included only in Estimated Holdings.

Share counts, net assets & marks
Estimated Holdings adds DXYZ’s August $150M cash-funded OpenAI purchase and estimated ATM issuance; ARKVX uses an inflow proxy and VCX rolls measurement marks. Both valuation sliders revalue these holdings. Strategic records retain their individual historical, pro forma or estimated basis.
ATM / inflows

DXYZ and ARKVX raised new capital after the filing. If that cash bought more of the same names, look-through is roughly unchanged; if it sits in cash, per-$100 falls. Default is the range until the next N-PORT pins it.

Click a row for the source arithmetic. As-of staleness: ●amber >90 days · ●red >180 days. Evidence is per-leg in the expanded panel.

Gross scenario estimates assembled from public filings and issuer disclosures. Figures may combine different source dates, security classes and valuation methodologies. They are not NAV, liquidation value, expected proceeds or price targets, and they exclude taxes, fees, carry, liabilities, preferences, transfer restrictions, lockups and future financing. Review each row's source and calculation before relying on it.

† Convertibles, preferred, capped stakes and commitments do not scale linearly with IPO valuation.

Underlying Open Source Data

Scenario outputs are calculated from public observations and explicit assumptions. Stated issuer percentages are stored as observations; implied stakes and per-$100 results are derived. Filed units use estimated FD share counts. Some historical source mappings remain unverified and are flagged. Export a frozen scenario to reproduce its exact inputs offline, including mixed source dates.

Schema, methodology and a standalone calculator live in github.com/bolewood/stocks-bolewood. Cite a dated tag rather than main, so the numbers behind a reference do not move.

Two-line prompt — paste into an LLM to audit the dataset:

Check https://github.com/bolewood/stocks-bolewood: read data/METHODOLOGY.md and data/wrappers/, then run npm run reference.
Confirm scenario outputs are derived from sourced observations and labeled assumptions; stated issuer percentages may be stored as observations. Check each basis, source and measurement/publication date, both holdings modes, every quantified slider response, and parity with reference/expected-results.json or an exported frozen scenario. Report unverified sources, mixed dates, unpublished stakes and unreproducible figures.

Sources & footnotes

Implied exposure is not always ownership. Disclosed means an issuer or investor stated a percentage. Filed FV-equiv is fair value ÷ the measurement valuation associated with it, which may be inferred. Filed units × scenario price uses an adjustable estimated FD denominator. Round-implied is dollars invested ÷ post-money. Commitments have no percentage. DXYZ PPUs are excluded from equity scaling. Source dates and assumptions can differ within a row.

GOOG · Alphabet Inc.
Security: Common (15% cap). ~14%, contractually hard-capped at 15% (NYT / court docs, 2025-03-11). 14% as of Mar 2025; later rounds may have diluted unless Alphabet bought more. Class A 5,868M + B 835M + C 5,527M = 12,230M (10-Q 2026-06-30). GOOG price × all classes ≈ Alphabet market cap. Anthropic: Court docket locator only. Exact exhibit supporting the inherited historical 14% and 15% cap remains unpinned; do not label the scenario as verified current ownership. NYT reporting on those court documents. 10-Q does not name Anthropic. Implied exposure ≤14.00% Anthropic / — OpenAI.
AMZN · Amazon.com Inc.
Security: Conv + Pfd. Anthropic: $92.5B preferred + $97.9B convertible notes (AMZN 10-Q as of 2026-06-30). Conversion terms undisclosed. Anthropic is filed carrying-value equivalent, not an ownership %. OpenAI is round-implied from the $50B Series C. 10-Q cover. Anthropic: Nonvoting preferred $92.5B + convertible notes FV $97.9B = $190.4B. $100B AWS is not equity. Conversion terms and any ownership cap are undisclosed. Series H $965B post-money. OpenAI: $15.0B Series C in Q1 + $13.7B in Q2 = $28.7B on the 2026-06-30 balance sheet; subsequent event funded the remaining $21.3B, completing $50B. $100B AWS is not equity. $852B post-money. Anth. FV $190.40B at $965.00B (2026-06-30). Implied exposure 19.73% Anthropic / 5.87% OpenAI.
MSFT · Microsoft Corporation
Security: Equity. 27%, only Big Tech % in an SEC filing (MSFT 10-Q as of 2026-03-31). OpenAI 27% is the only Big Tech percentage in an SEC filing. Anthropic: Up to $5B from Microsoft and $10B from NVIDIA. Announced commitment, no quantified ownership. Series G later says a portion was included, without allocating amounts. OpenAI: ~27% of OpenAI as-converted, equity method. Implied exposure — Anthropic / 27.00% OpenAI.
SFTBY · SoftBank Group ADR
Security: Gross SVF2 equity. Gross SVF2 OpenAI preferred and common exposure. Approximately 13% is pro forma after the full investment program, including the scheduled October 1 $10B tranche. This is not current funded ownership or an SBG-shareholder net economic interest; management co-investment, debt and taxes are not deducted. Gross SVF2 OpenAI preferred and common exposure. Approximately 13% is pro forma after the full investment program, including the scheduled October 1 $10B tranche. This is not current funded ownership or an SBG-shareholder net economic interest; management co-investment, debt and taxes are not deducted. 5,699,049,389 ordinary outstanding × 2 = 11,398,098,778 ADS-equivalent (Citi ORD:DR 1:2). Gross exposure can exceed 100% of SBG equity value because it precedes debt and the holdco discount. June 30 issuer NAV: ¥83.11T adjusted holdings less ¥10.81T SBG adjusted net debt = ¥72.30T. Those are dated balances, not live NAV. SVF2 already includes OpenAI. Management co-investment has preferred-capital and fund-wide hurdles, so neither the 13% headline nor a flat 17.25% reduction establishes shareholder-attributable ownership. July $10B is funded; October $10B is planned. The $40B bridge is a facility limit. The August $10B SVF2 loan agreement has an SBG guarantee, cash-collateral account and OpenAI-value triggers; its net funding use is not independently reconciled here. See /sftby for the dated NAV bridge and allocation sensitivities. OpenAI: Rounded $55B cost / $100B value. Approximately 13% includes the planned October tranche. April and July $10B tranches completed; October $10B scheduled. Do not prorate the 13% by cost to invent current ownership. Qualifies interpretation of gross fund exposure, not the source of 13%: MgmtCo has 17.25% of SVF2 LLC Equity, with preferred capital, fund-wide hurdles and receivable offsets. Exact shareholder net allocation is not a fixed percentage of the gross stake. Implied exposure — Anthropic / 13.00% OpenAI.
NVDA · NVIDIA Corporation
Security: Undisclosed. OpenAI is round-implied from OpenAI's $30B announcement. Anthropic is a commitment with no ownership %. Neither figure is an NVDA-disclosed ownership percentage. Anthropic: Up to $5B from Microsoft and $10B from NVIDIA. Announced commitment, no quantified ownership. Series G later says a portion was included, without allocating amounts. OpenAI: OpenAI round announcement: Nvidia invested $30B. Not an NVDA 10-K ownership %. $852B post-money. Implied exposure — Anthropic / 3.52% OpenAI.
SKM · SK Telecom Co.
Security: Equity equivalents. Filed Anthropic shares; security conversion parity and the company FD denominator are modeled. The rounded reported 0.2% is a cross-check, not an exact FD count. DART reports 3,860,330 Anthropic shares and a rounded 0.2% at June 30. Scenario exposure uses these units and the shared estimated Anthropic FD denominator. No disclosed OpenAI holding. 213,057,911 ordinary outstanding × 9/5 = 383,504,239.8 ADS-equivalent. This is an exact quote-line equivalent, not a count of issued ADSs. Anthropic: Beginning 3,703,141 + acquired 157,189 = ending 3,860,330. Ownership printed 0.2%; investment 139,925 and book value 3,505,017 in KRW millions. Direct corporate holding; gross model assumes no SPV carry. Anth. 3,860,330 filed units (2026-06-30); scenario uses the shared estimated FD count. Scenario-equivalent stake = units / selected FD shares; not a filed ownership percentage.
ZM · Zoom Communications
Security: Preferred. Anthropic preferred; 10-Q carrying value $3,134.5M as of 2026-07-31. OpenAI is a product/API partner, not equity. 10-Q cover. Class A 263,233,141 + Class B 28,550,570. Anthropic: $3,134.5M carrying value of Anthropic preferred. Six-month additional investment $300.9M; Q2 unrealized gain $1,612.7M. Not disclosed ownership. 10-Q records the Q2 mark using information including Anthropic's May 28, 2026 financing round. Series H $965B post-money. Anth. FV $3.13B at $965.00B (2026-07-31). Implied exposure 0.325% Anthropic / — OpenAI.
AGIX · KraneShares Public-Private AI ETF
Security: Fund NAV. Look-through from filed fair value ÷ the round used to mark that FV. Not the SingularityNET token. No OpenAI in disclosed holdings. Public-Private AI ETF: Anthropic is a small NAV sleeve (~1.9–2.8%), which is why look-through is a few dollars per $100. ETF share count drifts with creations/redemptions. Anthropic: Holdings page: Anthropic PBC $12,926,025 (1.92% of NAV). NAV weight has printed ~1.9–2.8% (Mar 31 report 2.7%; Jul 31 blog 2.82%). Issuer locator is live; dated snapshot/exact filing still needs archival verification. Anth. FV $12.9M at $965.00B (2026-08-18). Implied exposure 0.00133948% Anthropic / — OpenAI.
DXYZ · Destiny Tech100
Security: Fund NAV. Gross share-equivalent exposure assumes conversion at parity. Scenario price = company valuation × (1 − incremental IPO dilution) ÷ estimated pre-IPO FD shares. The FD denominator is not filed. Filed quantities are revalued under every scenario using adjustable, estimated company FD share counts. Estimated Holdings adds the August 13 cash-funded OpenAI lot and a separate ATM bridge. PPUs remain excluded from equity scaling. FILED: 47,657,338 shares from the June 30, 2026 N-CSRS. ESTIMATED: /dxyz ATM bridge from July 1. Active ATM. Board approved an August 2026 below-NAV repurchase program, discretionary as to size and timing. Anthropic: Magnitude ANC III, LLC: balance 386,088, valUSD 235,671,976.08. N-CSRS footnote (g)/(i): units are the equivalent number of Anthropic Series B preferred shares. SPV carry 0%/0%. SOI: 386,088 units, cost $107,000,000, FV $235,671,976. Level 3 bucket $278,448,755 is VWAP, index prices, and recent transaction price ($589.00–$766.76, avg $651.51) — Magnitude ANC III + Goanna + OAI I. Announced primary rounds are not an input. OpenAI: Goanna Capital 26E LLC: balance 50,895, valUSD 35,040,868.20. Carry 0%/0%. DXYZ OAI I LLC 11,236 units, FV $7,735,911 are OpenAI Group PBC Profit Participation Units, not equity. Subsequent event: additional $150.0M into Goanna Capital 26E (OpenAI Class A Common) on 2026-08-13, funded from existing cash. Applied on ESTIMATED only. Anth. 386,088 filed units (2026-06-30); scenario uses the shared estimated FD count. OAI 50,895 units at $688.49/unit ($35.0M, 2026-06-30). Scenario-equivalent stake = units / selected FD shares; not a filed ownership percentage.
ARKVX · ARK Venture Fund
Security: Fund NAV. Look-through from filed fair value ÷ the round used to mark that FV. Limited quarterly liquidity. Priced at NAV (~1.00×). Unlisted interval fund, multiple share classes. Denominator is NPORT-EX total net assets $871,119,657 as of 2026-04-30 (same schedule as the holdings). Class D SO 21,613,728 as of 2026-07-31 is a current-assets proxy only (× live Class D NAV) for the cash end of the deploy range — it is not fund TNA. Anthropic: Anthropic, Inc. Series C-1 $23,083,673. Same schedule TNA $871,119,657. Measurement-valuation matching is a modeling assumption, not a filed cap table. OpenAI: OpenAI lots $7,321,148 + $11,205,221 + $49,999,651 + SPV $3,986,608 = $72,512,628. Anth. FV $23.1M at $380.00B (2026-04-30). OAI FV $72.5M at $852.00B (2026-04-30). Implied exposure 0.00607465% Anthropic / 0.00851087% OpenAI.
VCX · Fundrise Innovation Fund
Security: Fund NAV. Look-through from filed fair value ÷ the round used to mark that FV. Trades at a large premium to NAV. Denominator is market cap, not NAV. Lockup expiration accelerated; shares freely tradeable as of Aug 14, 2026. 35,797,138 common (N-CSR/A 2026-03-31), confirmed outstanding at June 30 by NPORT-P zero flows and Interval Fund N-CSRS affiliate reconciliation. ESTIMATED keeps that share count and rolls Anthropic from the NPORT-implied ~$864B mark to Series H; OpenAI lots were unchanged at the Feb 2026 ~$850B fund mark, so ESTIMATED only rolls the $850B→$852B last-primary step. Anthropic: SaxeCap Advisors VIII, LP $128,169,056 + AI Access 12, LLC $45,459,418. Both lots are 2.2729709× their March 31 NPORT values (SaxeCap $56,388,340; AI Access 12 $20,000,000), so this is a mark, not a new subscription. Together they were $76,388,340 of the 3/31 N-CSR Anthropic $112,418k economic issuer total. HOF Capital AG Follow On, LLC ($36,029,463 at 3/31) is absent at 6/30. Also referencing Schedule of Investments (04400.htm). Implied ~$863.7B = Series G $380B × the 2.2729709× NPORT multiple on the remaining lots. Not a disclosed Anthropic round; Fundrise did not take the full Series H 965/380 multiple. OpenAI: Quiet OA Access LP $64,613,489 + HOF Capital AP Growth, LLC $19,548,977 — identical to the March 31 NPORT lots, which summed to the N-CSR OpenAI $84,163k economic-issuer total. Also referencing Schedule of Investments (04400.htm). Feb 2026 ~$850B fund-mark print used as the measurement company valuation. Unchanged dollar FV at June 30, so the mark was not rolled. The filing supports the lot values, not the $850B denominator; the historical Hiive print is not archived. Retained as an unverified modeling assumption. Anth. FV $173.6M at $863.73B (2026-06-30). OAI FV $84.2M at $850.00B (2026-06-30). Implied exposure 0.0201022% Anthropic / 0.00990147% OpenAI.