EchoStar Corp (ECHO, formerly SATS — ticker changed June 24, 2026) is a satellite, pay-TV, and wireless spectrum company. ECHO has agreed to sell its key spectrum assets to AT&T (cash) and SpaceX (primarily SpaceX stock), making ECHO shares trade as a highly liquid proxy for SpaceX. On June 30, 2026 its DISH DBS pay-TV subsidiary and certain wireless units filed a prepackaged Chapter 11 (88% bondholder support, expected to exit by end of Q3) after the delayed AT&T closing left $2B of notes unpaid — the parent and its SpaceX stake sit outside the filing. This sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model details the SpaceX re-rate upside against the hidden drags: corporate cash taxes on the spectrum transfer, closing timelines, and restructuring overlays. Inputs default to filed deal terms; modify them below to test your own thesis.
How this works in 30 seconds
The core asset is the contractual 261.8M shares of SpaceX (post-split) delivered upon closing the spectrum sale (estimated November 30, 2027).
We apply haircuts: a liquidity discount for private stock block size, and a closing probability × time-value-of-money haircut for the 2027 lockup.
We add other parts: the value of remaining spectrum, operating assets (Dish, Boost, Hughes), and pro-forma cash.
We subtract liabilities: the heavy corporate C-corp tax on the $42.25B spectrum sale gain, and restructuring haircuts while the DISH DBS Chapter 11 and delayed AT&T closing play out.
We compare the final NAV against ECHO's current stock price to find the implied proxy discount and effective price paid for SpaceX.
⚠️ Charlie Ergen Key-Man & Governance Risk
Charlie Ergen (73, controlling shareholder) holds super-voting shares, giving him total control of ECHO. He recently skipped the Q1 earnings call, sparking retail governance concerns. All deals, restructuring steps, and cash distributions are dependent on Ergen.
🕒 Multi-Year Closing Delay (Nov 2027)
The SpaceX equity block is not delivered until closing, expected ~November 30, 2027. ECHO is highly exposed to macro downturns, restructuring surprises, or SpaceX re-rates in the intervening 1.5+ years before ECHO actually holds the liquid stock.
📉 Proxy-Unwind Demand Drop
ECHO trades at a proxy discount because SpaceX is private. If SpaceX's direct stock (SPCX) starts trading actively in liquid public markets or list lockups expire, investors will buy SPCX directly, leading to an unwind of ECHO's proxy premium.
○ DEFAULT
Diluted includes bond conversion dilution risk noted by Barron's.
Preset Scenarios
VISUAL 01
ECHO SOTP Bridge ($ / Share)
🔍 Click to enlarge
VISUAL 02
NAV Sensitivity Matrix
🔍 Click to enlarge
SPCX / Tax
0%
10%
15%
20%
25%
28%
$135 (IPO)
$113
+17%
$103
+7%
$98
+2%
$93
-3%
$88
-9%
$85
-12%
👉 $155
$121
+27%
$111
+16%
$106
+11%
$101
+6%
$96
+0%
$93
-3%
$175
$130
+36%
$120
+25%
$115
+20%
$110
+15%
$105
+10%
$102
+6%
$195
$139
+45%
$129
+34%
$124
+29%
$119
+24%
$114
+19%
$111
+16%
$215
$148
+54%
$138
+44%
$133
+38%
$128
+33%
$123
+28%
$120
+25%
$235
$156
+63%
$146
+53%
$141
+48%
$136
+42%
$131
+37%
$128
+34%
$255
$165
+72%
$155
+62%
$150
+57%
$145
+51%
$140
+46%
$137
+43%
*Shaded by upside (green) or downside (red) vs. today's ECHO price of $95.88. Selected active model cell highlighted with orange border.
Reconcile your model's outputs against reported Wall Street targets. Cowen and Barron's apply a tax haircut to the spectrum gain; Citi (7/8/26) applies a discount to the SpaceX stake. Across 7 covering analysts the average target is ~$146 (57% rate Buy):
Anchor Target Source
SPCX Price
SpaceX Stake
ECHO Target NAV
Model Variance
TD Cowen (Greg Williams, May 2026)
~$118 (implied)
$31.0B
$155.00
-60.89
Barron's Sanity Case (6/12/26 Article)
~$175
$45.8B
$185.00 - $190.00
-93.39 vs mid
Citi (Michael Rollins, 7/8/26)
$200 (Citi SpaceX value)
$52.4B (pre-discount)
$126.00
-31.89
Your Risk-Adjusted Model (Active)
$150
$23.85B
$94.11
—
*Note: To align with Barron's target of ~$185-190/sh, check the **Diluted** share count toggle (modeling convertibles), set SPCX price to **$175**, and select the **Bull Preset** (which sets a conservative 15% effective tax rate and 20% liquidity discount).
01
SpaceX Equity Stake (The Swing Factor)
Edit discount sliders to haircut the private block
Asset component
Shares / Price
Value ($B)
$/ECHO Share
Tag
Gross SpaceX Consideration
Fixed block of post-split Class A SpaceX shares. (S-1 Note F-26)
261.8M @ $150
$39.27B
$135.51
[VERIFIED]
Block Size & Illiquidity Discount
Haircut for private stock block size relative to public float.
20%
—
-$7.85B
-$27.10
[ESTIMATE]
Closing Probability & Timing Haircut
Stake delivers ~Nov 30, 2027. Discount for close probability (FCC approved, DOJ pending) + time-value-of-money.
Close Prob85%
Discount Rate8%
0.85x prob · 1.46 yr PV
-$7.56B
-$26.09
[ESTIMATE]
Net Risk-Adjusted SpaceX Stake
$23.85B
$82.31
02
Other SOTP Parts (Spectrum & Operations)
Adjust assets that back ECHO operating stub
Asset component
Filing baseline
Model Value ($B)
$/ECHO Share
Tag
Remaining Spectrum Holdings
Spectrum licenses not included in SpaceX/AT&T transaction (AWS-3, etc.)
$11.0B
$11.0B
$11.00B
$37.96
[ESTIMATE]
Pro-Forma Net Cash
Contested baseline net cash position after AT&T and SpaceX transaction cash.
$4.7B
$4.7B / $2.0B / $10.7B
$4.70B
$16.22
[ESTIMATE]
Operating Stub (DISH, Hughes, Boost)
Aggregate valuation of underlying satellite TV, retail wireless, and broadband units.
$6.0B
$6.0B
$6.00B
$20.70
[ESTIMATE]
Pre-Tax NAV (Discounted SpaceX + Others)
$45.55B
$157.19
03
Risk Deductions (Tax & Credit Default Overlay)
Model the heavy drags Wall Street ignores
⚠️ CHAPTER 11 — DIVISIONS ONLY: On June 30, 2026, DISH DBS (pay-TV) and certain wireless subsidiaries filed a prepackaged Chapter 11 in Houston, backed by 88% of DBS bondholders, after the delayed ~$23B AT&T spectrum sale left $2B of notes maturing July 1 unpaid. The parent (ECHO) and its SpaceX stake are OUTSIDE the filing; Dish TV/Sling operations continue. Management expects the units to exit before the end of Q3 2026. Your toggle below is set to contested / prolonged, so we apply the Distress Haircut.
Deduction component
Inputs
Deduction ($B)
$/ECHO Share
Tag
Corporate C-Corp Tax on Spectrum Gain
ECHO will realize a massive taxable gain on the $42.25B transfer of spectrum licenses to SpaceX + AT&T.
Spectrum Tax Basis$B
Available NOLs$B
Effective Tax Rate25%
Taxable Gain: $36.25B
-$9.06B
-$31.27
[ESTIMATE]
Tower Lease Termination Costs
EchoStar must terminate or reassign long-term tower site leases as part of the spectrum transaction wind-down. Estimated liability per Barron's.
Tower Lease Liability$2.40B
Lease breakage costs
-$2.40B
-$8.28
[ ESTIMATE]
Restructuring Haircut / Chapter 11 overlay
Haircut applied if the DBS prepack gets contested/prolonged or the delayed AT&T closing slips further.
20%
Contested restructuring
-$6.82B
-23.53
[REPORTED]
Simulate Deal Break (Pre-deal Distress Net Debt)
Check this box to simulate the scenario where the transaction breaks, ECHO receives no SpaceX equity, and remains saddled with its pre-deal Net Debt of -$27.7B.
Pro-forma deal active
—
[DISTRESS]
04
ECHO SOTP Outputs & Implied SpaceX Price
Compare Pre-tax vs. Risk-Adjusted values
PRE-TAX SOTP VALUE
$45,554,882,030
$157.19/ ECHO share
Upside vs ECHO Price:64%
Premium/Discount to NAV:-39%
Effective SPCX Price Paid:$32.41
*Pre-tax SOTP NAV ignores corporate taxes on the spectrum transfer gain, tower lease termination costs, and DBS default distress overlays.
RISK-ADJUSTED SOTP VALUE
$27,273,905,624
$94.11/ ECHO share
Upside vs ECHO Price:-2%
Premium/Discount to NAV:2%
Effective SPCX Price Paid:$67.03
*Risk-adjusted SOTP NAV includes C-corp tax drag on gain, tower lease termination costs, and credit distress default adjustments.
ⓘ
About ECHO share count
The default ECHO basic share count of 289.8M is an estimate of Class A + B outstanding. The authoritative share count changes quarterly and can be verified against EchoStar's latest Form 10-Q / 10-K. To evaluate convertible bond dilution risk noted by Barron's and Cowen, toggle on the **Diluted** share count button (which models conversion to **304.4M** shares).
ⓘ
About the spectrum tax
Bulls frequently mark ECHO's spectrum sale gross of tax, but C-corp stock-for-asset exchanges are taxable at the corporate level. We model cash taxes on the spectrum transfer proceeds ($42.25B) less tax basis (default $5.0B) and ECHO's available NOLs (default $1.0B) at a 25% federal + state rate. If ECHO can defer tax via the "Spectrum Business Trust 2025-1" structure, the effective tax rate will be lower (preset Moon is 0%).