Changelog:
• August 31, 2026 — Affiliate overhang and supply verified via Fundrise Real Estate Interval Fund's June 30 N-CSRS (accession 0001777677-26-000057, filed Aug 31): Note 6 confirms the $50M February registered offering purchase, $192.9M of public sales proceeds realized ($164.1M gain) through June 30, and 1,163,216 shares ($100.5M Level 1 FV at the $86.43 June 30 close) remaining in affiliate hands as of June 30. Form 144 filings show ongoing sales into August. Added note on the retail lockup acceleration (expired Aug 13, 2026, freely tradeable Aug 14 per July 27 Form 8-K).
• August 28, 2026 — Baseline rolled to the June 30, 2026 NPORT-P (accession 0001867090-26-000109, signed Aug 27, filed Aug 28): net assets $777.0M, NAV $21.70 per share, 35,797,138 shares (Q2 flows were zero). Anthropic remaining lots (SaxeCap + AI Access 12) marked 2.273× to $173.6M, implying ~$864B vs Series G — not a full Series H roll; HOF AG Follow On ($36.0M) exited. OpenAI lots (Quiet OA + HOF AP) unchanged at $84.2M. New vehicles: Figure AI $10.0M, Fluidstack $19.3M, Prometheus $15.0M; AI-LLM +$20.0M. dbt Labs renamed Fivetran (merger closed). Visual Layer SAFE gone. SpaceX SPV $26.9M→$33.1M; Anduril CIV $30.2M→$21.6M. Cash $60.8M and reverse repos −$30.5M now explicit. Notice/Ventuals MOICs recomputed vs the new implied marks (those secondary prints are still dated June 1).
• June 1, 2026 — Rebased to 3/31/26 audited annual report. Base case changed from unaudited 12/31/25 marks to the audited 3/31/26 annual report (KPMG opinion 5/30/26). The 12/31 scenario has been retired. Share count set to the audited 35,797,138 (was a ~35.9M Reddit reconstruction, which proved accurate within 0.3%). Default NAV now $678.9M / $18.97 per share (was $533.8M / $14.87). The ~$145M increase is almost entirely the Q1 2026 AI markup, concentrated in five names: Anthropic +$62M, OpenAI +$31M, Anduril +$25M, SpaceX +$20M, Flock +$7M. Anthropic and SpaceX were moved from the PPS-marked box to the MOIC box, as both are held via CIV/SPV with no look-through share count, so the prior per-share lines were structurally wrong. OpenAI was relabeled from "Convertible Rights + Partnership" to two co-investment-vehicle lots ($84.2M total). ServiceTitan (TTAN, $12.7M) was removed — no longer in the schedule; sold during the year. Theory Ventures was reclassified from a sold LP interest to an in-kind promissory note ($4.73M, 10% coupon, matures 2033). Removed the $100M synthetic "pre-listing issuance" plug and flipped the net-other line from –$27.3M to +$64.7M — the audited balance sheet already reflects post-issuance cash ($75.7M), so the bridge and the negative-liabilities assumption were double-counting / sign-wrong. New/trued-up positions include Erebor Bank ($5.0M, new), Flock Class A + Class A First SAFE (new 3/2/26 tranches), Loyal share count 680→780, Stripe marked up, MMF $26.6M→$38.3M, CMBS $66.4M→$65.8M. Premium at the default price recomputed to ~15.4x / ~1,445% (was 19.7x / 1,870%). Added two scenario presets — "Mark-to-Secondary" (Notice consensus) and "Derivative Ceiling" (Ventuals oracle) — that mark Anthropic and OpenAI to current secondary/derivative prices. Even at the Ventuals ceiling, the implied premium stays ~9x; at the Notice consensus, ~11x. Expanded the Section 02 footnote to explain how Fundrise derived the 3/31 marks (Level 3 market approach; "Market Transaction" vs "Recent Transaction") and our inferred implied valuations (Anthropic ~$350B, OpenAI ~$450–500B), and corrected the prior stale ~$300B OpenAI figure. Default price updated to $211 (premium ~11.1x / ~1,012%).
• May 12, 2026 — Added "¢ per $1" column to all three tables, showing how many cents of each underlying holding you get for every dollar invested in VCX at the current market price. Updated default VCX market price from $240 to $293.
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May 11, 2026 (evening update) — Updated default share count from 28.3M to 35.9M based on a forensic cap-table reconciliation by Reddit user Fit_Equal6932 (
full analysis here). His walk anchors on a Fundrise platform screenshot from February 20, 2026 ($563M AUM at $18.27 NAV, implying 30.82M shares) and walks forward through documented Q1 2026 events to reconcile against Fundrise's reported $679M pre-listing AUM, arriving at ~35.9M total shares outstanding. The prior 28.3M figure from the April 24 Form 144 appears to be the January 29 Schedule TO baseline that didn't get updated for late retail subscriptions or the Tech Infrastructure REIT block. At 35.9M shares the bear case math is sharper, not softer — the per-share NAV in every scenario is lower than the prior version showed. Bloomberg's reported ~4.7M free float at listing ties closely to the ~5.1M implied by his analysis.
• May 11, 2026 (afternoon update) — Added a $100M "Pre-listing primary issuance (Jan–Mar 2026)" line to the other-holdings section. The prior version was dividing the 12/31/25 NAV by the late-April share count without accounting for the real primary issuance that occurred to platform investors between year-end and the March 19 NYSE listing. That issuance brought roughly $100M of cash into VCX at the then-published NAV of ~$19/share, and is what reconciles the year-end $437M total net assets to the ~$540M+ AUM at listing time. With this line included, the default "12/31/25 marks" scenario now produces a NAV/share close to Fundrise's own reported $19, matching the figure most outside observers reference.
• May 11, 2026 (morning update) — Updated default share count from 30.57M (estimate based on assumed post-listing ATM issuance) to 28.3M, per the Form 144 filed April 24, 2026 by Fundrise Real Estate Interval Fund. Removed the "Forward Dilution" section and the dynamic issuance-cash inputs entirely. The previous model incorrectly assumed Fundrise was conducting an at-the-market offering (ATM) that was adding cash to VCX's balance sheet and diluting per-share exposure to the underlying companies. EDGAR filings show no such primary issuance is occurring; the ~60,000 shares/day of public-market supply is instead coming from a Fundrise-affiliated entity liquidating shares it acquired in a pre-listing registered offering. This means per-share claims on Anthropic and other holdings are static, not decaying. The bear case rests on premium-to-NAV math and the platform-investor lockup expiry (accelerated to August 13, 2026, shares now freely tradeable) rather than ongoing dilution. Default VCX market price updated from $158.98 to $240 to reflect more recent trading. Thanks to /u/CapAggravating784 on Reddit for the correction.
• May 10, 2026 — Initial publication.
Sources:
• Position data: Fundrise Innovation Fund, LLC — Form NPORT-P and Schedule of Investments (04400.htm) as of June 30, 2026 (accession 0001867090-26-000109, signed August 27, 2026, filed August 28, 2026). Vehicle-to-issuer mapping uses the 04400.htm Economic Issuer schedule, the March 31, 2026 NPORT-P (0001867090-26-000054), and the N-CSR/A economic-issuer schedule (0001999371-26-011950).
• Share count: 35,797,138 shares outstanding, audited, per the Statement of Assets and Liabilities (3/31/26). June 30 NPORT Item B.6 reports $0 sales and $0 redemptions for April–June.
• Supply mechanics: Public-market sales since the NYSE listing are largely attributable to Fundrise Real Estate Interval Fund's wholly-owned subsidiary (Tech Infrastructure REIT) liquidating shares it acquired in a February 24, 2026 registered offering under Rule 144 (latest Form 144 filed August 12, 2026). Per the parent Fundrise Real Estate Interval Fund semi-annual report (N-CSRS filed August 31, 2026, accession 0001777677-26-000057), the Interval Fund originally purchased $50.0M at cost, realized $192.9M in sale proceeds ($164.1M net realized gain) through June 30, and held 1,163,216 shares ($100.5M fair value at June 30). Daily sales continued through August under Form 144 filings. Furthermore, per Form 8-K filed July 27, 2026, the retail platform-investor lockup for pre-Feb 20, 2026 shares was accelerated from September 14, 2026 to August 13, 2026, and those shares became freely tradeable on August 14, 2026.
• Secondary-market price-per-share inputs: User-supplied, with defaults from the June 30, 2026 NPORT-P. Recommended sources for current pricing include Hiive, Caplight, Notice, and Forge Global.
• NYSE listing: VCX began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on March 19, 2026.