Start with SoftBank's reported holdings, revalue Arm and OpenAI, then account for funding, debt and optional discounts. The gross OpenAI exposure uses the same valuation anchor, pro forma stake and ADR share count as the AI exposure calculator.
Research checked September 5, 2026. Holdings and debt: June 30. OpenAI funded fair value: July 31. This is a mixture of dated disclosures, selected quotes and estimates, not a current reported balance sheet.
Preparing calculator controls…
What the model assumes
Arm: 922,733,999 disclosed shares × the selected price, less June financing.
OpenAI: default 13% is SVF2's pro forma stake, including the planned October $10B. The July alternative scales the rounded $100B fund fair value; it does not invent a current ownership percentage.
Shareholder NAV: preserve SBG's June SVF2 NAV and add only OpenAI's modeled change. Management co-investment is a separate sensitivity, not a flat deduction from the entire stake.
Funding: add July's $10B and, in the pro forma case, October's $10B to net debt. Other cash flows need an explicit adjustment.
Tokyo quote ¥5,590. One ordinary share = two ADRs.
Converts modeled NAV to yen. June asset and debt balances stay at June FX; their current currency mix is unknown.
Latest primary anchor: $852B, March 31. $1,600B is an IPO scenario.
Preferred and common holdings. New preferred shares automatically convert on an IPO. Security rights and future dilution can change proceeds.
Same retained-ownership convention as /ai: multiply exposure by (1 − dilution).
Author-selected discount, not a reported fair-value adjustment.
SVF1, LatAm, SoftBank Corp., T-Mobile and other holdings. SVF2's June base stays intact.
Scenarios
Modeled NAV / ADR
$37.91
¥11,844 per Tokyo ordinary
Management sensitivity / ADR
$37.91–$39.40
17.25% to 0% of positive post-June revaluation. Only this assumption varies; this is not a complete valuation range.
Discount to modeled NAV
53.3%
Market cap $202.0B / NAV $432.1B
Modeled adjusted LTV
16.7%
$86.57B net debt / $518.7B holdings. This is not today's reported LTV.
Gross OpenAI per $100 SFTBY
$102.98
Before management allocation, debt, tax and liquidity discounts. Pro forma mode matches /ai at identical price, valuation and dilution.
OpenAI value at NAV = market cap
No positive solution
Other modeled assets already cover market cap at $0 OpenAI.
Uncertain assumptions: management allocation, tax and other net debt
The exact SBG shareholder allocation of OpenAI cannot be reproduced from aggregate fund disclosures. MgmtCo has 17.25% of SVF2 LLC Equity, with preferred capital, fund-wide distribution hurdles and receivable offsets. This sensitivity deducts a selected share of positive revaluation after new funding. It is an approximation; it neither removes 17.25% of gross assets nor predicts the full fund waterfall.
0–17.25% stress choices; default uses the larger deduction. No deduction for new capital or modeled losses.
Beyond the July/October checks. Positive subtracts NAV; negative adds NAV. Include net cash used, interest, disposals and repayments here without double counting.
Applied to positive modeled Arm/OpenAI gains only. Not a forecast effective tax rate or a tax on gross assets.
The inherited $40B is an unverified proxy, not a disclosed tax basis. Tax defaults to zero.
OpenAI change from June gross FV, after liquidity discount
$118.4B
Estimated management allocation on positive new revaluation
−$16.97B
SBG adjusted net debt + funding + other adjustment
−$86.57B
Illustrative tax leakage
$0.00B
Modeled holdco NAV
$432.1B
June SVF2 already contains OpenAI. The bridge adds $208.0B modeled value − $89.6B June gross value = $118.4B. Incremental funding of $20.00B is also charged to net debt. An investment at cost does not manufacture NAV.
02
Why density can exceed 100%
Gross fund / asset exposure
Value
Per $100 SFTBY
Arm, before financing
$232.6B
$115.17
OpenAI, before allocation and discounts
$208.0B
$102.98
Gross asset exposure is divided by the market value of SoftBank's equity. Borrowing and a holding-company discount can make this ratio exceed 100%. It is not cash available to shareholders. An OpenAI IPO can improve liquidity, but does not require SoftBank to sell or distribute proceeds. Arm, OpenAI and the other investments also have their own valuation risks.
03
NAV / ADR sensitivity
ARM / OAI $B
500
730
852
1000
1200
1600
2000
$150
$18.59
$21.21
$22.58
$23.98
$25.87
$29.64
$33.42
$200
$22.63
$25.26
$26.63
$28.03
$29.92
$33.69
$37.47
$250
$26.68
$29.31
$30.68
$32.08
$33.96
$37.74
$41.51
$300
$30.73
$33.35
$34.73
$36.12
$38.01
$41.79
$45.56
$350
$34.78
$37.40
$38.78
$40.17
$42.06
$45.84
$49.61
04
Debt and reporting dates
June consolidated net interest-bearing debt
$137.3B
Less self-financing entities
−$37.13B
Less other issuer adjustments
−$33.56B
Issuer bridge rounding
$0.00B
June SBG adjusted net debt
$66.57B
July OpenAI investment funded
$10.00B
October OpenAI investment (pro forma only)
$10.00B
Other net-debt adjustment (estimate)
$0.00B
Modeled adjusted net debt
$86.57B
June balances use reporting USDJPY 162.39. The $40B bridge is a facility limit; July borrowing is included, October is planned. Arm financing is netted from Arm once. Subsidiary debt already reflected in equity values is not subtracted again. Loan proceeds retained as cash do not automatically increase net debt. Current balances, accrued financing costs and refinancing uses are not fully reconciled by the available quarter-end data.
Expected August borrowing, guaranteed by SBG, with a cash collateral account and OpenAI-value triggers. Actual draw and net use of proceeds are not reconciled here. Do not add the facility as net debt automatically.
Option issuance is not an exercised ordinary share. Retain the June issued-less-treasury denominator, shared with /ai; future SBG dilution is not modeled.
ABB robotics and DigitalBridge are planned acquisitions, not separately added June assets. Financing and acquisition announcements require both sides of the balance-sheet bridge before changing NAV. The other-net-debt control can stress unresolved funding uses; it does not replace a complete transaction model.
06
Sources and reproducibility
June 30 issuer NAV: ¥83.11T holdings − ¥10.81T debt = ¥72.30T pre-tax. The calculator reproduces that anchor before subsequent changes. Other holdings retain June marks; their multiplier is an estimate.
Arm FY2026 20-F, May 21 ownership: 922,733,999 shares, approximately 86.4% at that date. The share count remains the input as Arm's share count changes.
SBG June share count: 5,699,049,389 ordinary excluding treasury. Citi 1:2 ADR ratio: 11,398,098,778 equivalent ADRs. This is outstanding stock, not a forecast fully diluted denominator.
March 31 OpenAI primary round: $852B post-money. July proxy = $100B × selected valuation / $852B; this cross-date, cross-security calibration is an estimate. Pro forma = 13% × selected valuation. Both multiply by (1 − dilution).
Management program: the exact future allocation is not published as a simple per-asset percentage. The displayed range varies only the stated approximation.
CFO capital and acquisition plans. Investment commitments can use cash or borrowing; changes to asset ownership and financing belong together.
Informational research model. NAV is an estimate of asset value, not realizable or distributable cash. Debt, private security rights, fund allocation, taxes, future dilution and investment decisions can change shareholder outcomes. The author may hold SFTBY, 9984, ARM or related securities.